Daily News 29 04 2025

Important News of the Day

Time Important Country Event Forecast Previous Actual
05:05 Australia (AUD) RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks
09:00 Germany (EUR) GfK German Consumer Climate (May) -25.6 -24.3 -20.6
12:00 United Kingdom (GBP) BoE Deputy Governor Woods Speaks
12:40 United Kingdom (GBP) MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
15:30 United States (USD) Goods Trade Balance (Mar) -142.80B -147.85B
15:30 United States (USD) Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Mar) 0.1%
16:00 United States (USD) S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Feb) 4.6% 4.7%
16:00 United States (USD) S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Feb) 0.1%
17:00 United States (USD) CB Consumer Confidence (Apr) 87.7 92.9
17:00 United States (USD) JOLTS Job Openings (Mar) 7.490M 7.568M
17:30 United States (USD) Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) -2.5% -2.5%
23:30 United States (USD) API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 0.390M -4.565M

Child killed in Russian strike on Dnipropetrovsk as villages are evacuated

image

As Russian troops advance near the border with Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk governor issued an evacuation order for four villages in the region's east.

A 12-year-old girl was killed in a Russian strike on Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region early on Tuesday, according to regional governor Serhiy Lysak.He added that the drone strike injured three others, including another six-year-old girl. Ukraine's State Emergency Service said the two children became trapped under the rubble of a house that was destroyed in the attack.Rescuers said they were able to pull both children from the rubble, but one succumbed to her injuries in the ambulance on the way to the hospital.On Monday, Lysak issued a mandatory evacuation order for four villages in the east of Dnipropetrovsk, near the border with Donetsk, where Russian forces continue to advance.Donetsk has been at the epicentre of fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces. Russian troops have not yet been able to enter Dnipropetrovsk, but have regularly targeted the region with with drones, missiles, and aerial bombs.At least eight people were killed in Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past day, according to regional authorities. Ukraine's Air Force reported that Russia fired 100 drones into Ukraine overnight, 37 of which were shot down. Zelenskyy calls Russian ceasefire proposal 'manipulation'Moscow has intensified attacks on Ukraine even after Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a unilateral 72-hour ceasefire to be held next week.Putin has ordered the truce will run from the start of 8 May and last through the end of 10 May to mark Moscow’s defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the proposal "another attempt at manipulation" and urged Russia to agree to a longer one beginning sooner."For some reason, everyone is supposed to wait until May 8 before ceasing fire — just to provide Putin with silence for his parade," he added.Putin also announced a 30-hour ceasefire over Easter, and Zelenskyy said he was ready to reciprocate, but Russian attacks continued. Moscow in turn accused Ukraine of failing to halt its attacks.Russia and Ukraine had also earlier pledged to observe a 30-day halt on strikes on energy infrastructure brokered by the US, but they repeatedly accused each other of massive violations until the measure expired.Up until now, Putin has refused to accept a complete unconditional ceasefire, demanding first an end to Western arms supplies to Ukraine and Ukraine’s mobilisation effort.

Israel's spy chief announces resignation following row with Netanyahu

image

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attempted to sack Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar last month over the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack.

The head of Israel's domestic intelligence service has announced his resignation over the agency's failure to warn of the deadly 7 October 2023 attack by Hamas.Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar said he will step down on 15 June, following a dispute with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who attempted to oust him last month.Bar made the announcement on Monday at a memorial event for fallen Shin Bet soldiers."After years on many fronts, one night, on the southern front, the skies came down," Bar said in reference to the attack, which killed more than 1,200 people in southern Israel and triggered the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. "All systems collapsed. The Shin Bet also failed to give a warning."Everyone who failed to stop the attack should bow their heads "in humility before the murdered, the dead, the wounded, the kidnapped and their families and act accordingly", he said at the event.Netanyahu attempted to fire Bar last month over what he said was a crisis of confidence surrounding Hamas' attack. But the move caused uproar domestically because the Shin Bet is probing ties between Netanyahu's office and Qatar, a mediator between Hamas and Israel over the Gaza war.The Shin Bet is looking into allegations that close advisers of Netanyahu acted as paid consultants for Qatar — which does not have full diplomatic relations with Israel — while also working for the prime minister. Netanyahu has not been directly implicated in the investigation.Israel’s Supreme Court froze the firing of Bar following multiple legal challenges against the move and called on the sides to reach a compromise.In his address on Monday, Bar said the court proceedings are "not about my personal case but about the independence of the next heads of the Shin Bet".Legal battleBar filed a document with the Supreme Court last week that accused Netanyahu of trying to exploit the power of the Shin Bet for political and personal gain. Netanyahu has repeatedly claimed that a "deep state" of civil servants and unelected judges is out to topple him. Civil society organisations say the Shin Bet chief is meant to be an independent figure and fear that Bar’s departure will pave the way for the prime minister to appoint an ally to the sensitive post. The Shin Bet is responsible for monitoring Palestinian militant groups, and Bar has previously acknowledged his agency’s failures in preventing Hamas’ 7 October attack.Netanyahu has blamed the failures on the army and security agencies and repeatedly resisted calls for an official state commission of inquiry.Bar is one of several senior Israeli security figures to resign or be dismissed in the aftermath of the Hamas attack — including the former defence minister and army chief.This month, Netanyahu moved to name a former navy commander as the new Shin Bet chief. The appointment was cancelled less than 24 hours later after it became known that the nominee had participated in anti-government protests.

European markets to rise as Trump prepares tariff reduction on auto parts

image

The White House has confirmed President Trump’s plan to reduce tariffs on auto parts for cars made in America, just days before the exemption on 25% import levies expires. Global markets continue their week-long winning streak, with major European indices set to open higher.

The Trump administration has signalled tariff relief on auto parts following intense lobbying by industrial leaders. On Monday, White House officials confirmed President Trump’s plan to reduce tariffs on auto parts for cars manufactured in the United States, as first reported by The Wall Street Journal. The administration will also prevent automakers from paying tariffs on top of existing levies, such as those on steel and aluminium. A proclamation formalising the change is expected to be signed by the president as soon as Tuesday.“President Trump is building an important partnership with both the domestic automakers and our great American workers,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in a statement. “This deal is a major victory for the president’s trade policy by rewarding companies that manufacture domestically, while providing runway to manufacturers who have expressed their commitment to invest in America and expand their domestic manufacturing.”The decision echoes Trump’s indication in mid-April that he wanted to “help car companies,” giving them “a little bit of time” to shift parts production domestically. Trump had exempted auto parts from the 25% tariffs until 3 May. Some major US carmakers, such as Tesla and Ford, have either paused plans for the mass production of new models or suspended shipments to China due to retaliatory tariffs.Trump has made a series of U-turns since announcing reciprocal tariffs on all countries at the beginning of the month. Investors accelerated their offloading of US assets amid growing uncertainties, with economists warning of a sharp economic slowdown caused by the global trade war. Earlier this month, Trump also exempted electronic products from the reciprocal tariffs following significant sell-offs in Apple’s stock. “I helped Tim Cook recently and that whole business,” he told reporters.On Monday, China once again denied any ongoing tariff negotiations with the United States, although Trump has repeatedly claimed trade talks were underway. Treasury Secretary Stott Bessent said in an interview with CNBC that “it’s up to China to de-escalate” the trade war. Nevertheless, the Trump administration appears to be softening its hard-line tariff stance, continuing to fuel a relief rally across global markets ahead of major US technology earnings later this week.European markets to open higher as global rally continuesThe news is expected to lift European stock markets further, with futures pointing to a higher open for major benchmarks. As of 5:35 am CEST, Germany’s DAX had risen 0.22%, the Euro Stoxx 50 was slightly higher, and the FTSE 100 was up 0.16%.Global stock markets also extended their rebound during Tuesday’s Asian session. As of 5:30 am CEST, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.38%, Australia’s ASX 200 gained 0.96%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index jumped 2%, and South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.63%. On Wall Street, US futures were also higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.12%, the S&P 500 gaining 0.16%, and the Nasdaq advancing 0.22%.However, the euro weakened against the US dollar during the Asian session as risk-off sentiment continued to fade amid signs of a de-escalation in the US-China trade war. The retreat in haven demand pressured traditional safe-haven currencies, including the euro and the Swiss franc, while gold also pulled back sharply. As of 5:46 am CEST, the EUR/USD pair had fallen 0.37% and the USD/CHF pair had dropped 0.55% in Tuesday’s session. Spot gold also declined by 1% to $3,311 per ounce following a modest rebound on Monday.

Four children killed after car crashes through Illinois building

image

The victims at the YNOT After School Camp are believed to range in age from four to 18, police said.

Four children were killed and several others were injured when a car crashed through a after-school camp building Monday afternoon in a town outside of Springfield, Illinois, police said. According to the local authorities, the officers responded at about 3:20 p.m. (22:30 CET) to calls about a vehicle fatally hitting three people outside, ramming through the building and then hitting another person before exiting the other side, Chatham Police Department Deputy Chief Scott Tarter said. Those killed were between the ages of 4 and 18, Illinois State Police said in an emailed statement. Several other people were hurt and taken to hospitals, police said. The driver, who was uninjured, was the sole occupant of the vehicle, and was taken to a hospital for evaluation. Illinois State Police haven't said if the driver was arrested or taken into custody.

Mark Carney weathers Conservative storm to lead Liberals to fourth consecutive election win

image

The resurgence of the Canadian Liberals that began with Donald Trump's presidency appears to have returned them to power.

Early results in Canada's general election indicated Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to form a government, the culmination of a stunning reversal in his Liberal Party's political prospects after a grim end to the reign of once-popular Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.Canadian broadcasters CBC and CTV have projected Carney to remain in his post, pulling off a dramatic victory after he inherited a Liberal Party trailing in polls by double digits to the main opposition Conservative Party, as former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's popularity took a hit.The Liberal Party is projected to outperform its Conservative rival in the Parliament's 343-seat House. What still remains unclear is whether Carney, a seasoned economist turned politician, will form a majority or minority government. A party needs to win 172 seats in the House for a majority. As things stand, Canadian media projects Carney's party to secure 161 seats. Poilievre's conservatives are not far behind, projected to win 150 seats.The election also marks a galling defeat for Canada's Conservatives, who under the leadership of Pierre Poilievre had expected to be returned to power until a diplomatic and trade crisis caused by the re-inauguration of Donald Trump dramatically undercut the appeal of a populist swing to the right.Trudeau's popularity had cratered in the last years of his prime ministership, and a wave of by-election losses and high-profile cabinet resignations ultimately drove him to announce his resignation in January this year — two weeks before Trump was sworn in for his second term.However, Trudeau responded to Trump's intense threats against Canada in the early phase of his presidency with unexpectedly tough and patriotic rhetoric that immediately recaptured support that he had lost.Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, won a thumping victory in the race to succeed Trudeau as Liberal leader, and was able to ride the wave the dramatic surge in Liberal support.Bloc Québécois (BQ), are projected to win 23 seats, the New Democratic Party (NDP) 8 seats, whilst the Green Party are on course to win just one seat. The Trump factorSince he came to power at the end of January, Trump has put Canada firmly in his sights. He and other figures in his administration have taken to referring to it as the US' potential 51st state and mocked Carney's predecessor as "Governor Trudeau". Trump has also threatened to impose aggressive tariffs on various Canadian goods entering the US. Some of those tariffs have been enacted, while others have been paused or retracted just before coming into force.This combined with Trump's vague but threatening remarks about a potential annexation led Carney to declare that the two allied countries' relationship had fundamentally changed.“The old relationship we had with the United States based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation is over,” he said in a speech on 28 March."It’s clear the US is no longer a reliable partner. It is possible that with comprehensive negotiations, we could reestablish an element of confidence but there will be no going backwards."

NDXUSD

Analysis
29 Apr 2025 08:32

This week, the financial results of technology giants will be announced. Apple (April 30), Microsoft, and Meta will reveal their financials; the impact of artificial intelligence investments on company balance sheets will be closely monitored. The first quarter GDP data and the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, which will be announced on Wednesday, are critical in terms of Fed policy, and Friday's employment report for April will also be closely watched. From a technical perspective, the NASDAQ is trading in a resistance area; if technology companies announce strong financial results, it is expected that the 19,500 resistance could be broken and the upward trend could continue towards 19,830, while in case of negative surprises, the 19,138 level may be tested.

DAXEUR

Analysis
29 Apr 2025 08:25

The GDP data to be announced on Wednesday is of critical importance for the German stock market. The hope of emerging from a technical recession (expectation: 0.2% growth) could boost investor confidence. Markets in Germany will be closed on Thursday due to Labor Day. Germany's CPI data is expected to remain stable, which supports expectations that the ECB could cut interest rates in June. The expectation that China's Manufacturing PMI data will move into contraction territory could pose a risk for export-oriented German companies. For the DAX index, 22,197 is noted as an important support level, and buying positions are deemed appropriate for price actions above this level.

WTIUSD

Analysis
29 Apr 2025 08:19

WTI is being supported by signals from the OPEC+ group to continue production cuts even after June. It is expected that OPEC+ will extend the current cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day during the Vienna meeting on June 1st into the third quarter. While the decrease in U.S. commercial crude oil stocks and the increase in refinery capacities have a positive effect, weak economic data from China is raising concerns about global demand; however, expectations that China will expand its economic stimulus package are a positive factor. Technically, WTI is trading sideways around $61.50, and if the resistance at $62.36 is broken, it could rise towards $63.16, while in a downward movement, $60.82 will be watched as the first support.

XAUUSD

Analysis
29 Apr 2025 08:16

Gold prices are supported by rising geopolitical risks and purchases by central banks. The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the ongoing Israel-Palestine tension are increasing demand for safe havens, while the People's Bank of China's purchase of 12 tons of gold in April is also supporting prices. Expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy also affect gold prices; the US quarterly GDP data and the Personal Consumption Expenditures index to be announced on Wednesday will provide clues about the Fed's policy trajectory. Technically, gold could test the resistance level of 2,326 in the short term; if this resistance is broken, a target of 3,385 could be set, otherwise, pullbacks towards the support level of 2,241 may be observed.

GBPUSD

Analysis
29 Apr 2025 08:13

The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3400, with the Bank of England's interest rate decision in the spotlight on the UK side. While the BoE is expected to keep interest rates steady, the likelihood of a rate cut at the June meeting is priced in at around 75%. The housing price index to be announced tomorrow will show the trend of the recovery in the UK housing market. The pound is relatively strong against the dollar, buoyed by moderate signs of recovery in the UK economy and expectations that the BoE will cut rates later than other central banks. Technically, if the resistance at 1.3524 is broken, there could be moves towards the 1.3566 level.

EURUSD

Analysis
29 Apr 2025 08:07

The PMI data released in Germany last week came in below expectations, under the 50.0 threshold, confirming the slowdown in economic activity. The upcoming German CPI data and the US GDP growth data on Wednesday will be closely watched. While the ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in June, the Fed is not expected to change rates but has a 55% chance of making a cut in June. In the short term, it seems likely that buying in EUR/USD will continue, and the psychological resistance at 1.1500 will be tested.