Shifting sands: Who can the Middle East turn to after USAID funding cuts?

As USAID moves its regional bureau to Cairo, Euronews asks how the Trump administration’s gutting of humanitarian – but not military -- assistance to Egypt and Jordan could affect the region’s stability, and open it up to other powers.

The last post on the US Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Middle East Facebook page was published on 17 January. “We are hiring," it said enthusiastically.Three days later, Donald Trump assumed the US presidency. That same day, he signed an executive order freezing all foreign aid pending a 90-day review. It took just five weeks for the administration and the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, to cut 90% of the USAID foreign aid contracts and $60 billion (€53.4bn) in overall US assistance worldwide. The decision — labelled as “one of the most sweeping rollbacks of US humanitarian and development funding in history” — immediately caused reverberations across the globe, not least in the Middle East and North Africa. The US has long been by far the largest funder of the United Nations, providing over $13 billion (€11.6bn) in 2023, which accounted for more than a quarter of its total budget. This figure inflated to over half for agencies like the World Food Programme. All gone, with the stroke of a pen.A former USAID employee who spoke on the condition of anonymity in fear of reprisals said the decision would “put lives in jeopardy”. Privately, UN employees told Euronews of lights and heating being permanently cut off in the office in the middle of winter, even at headquarters in Geneva.The administration has also introduced stringent — and some believe highly politicised — conditions for the little money available. A US-funding document shared with Euronews by a UN official included questions asking applicants to “confirm that your organisation does not work with entities associated with communist, socialist, or totalitarian parties, or any party that espouses anti-American beliefs.”Another condition demands that projects “reinforce US sovereignty by limiting reliance on international organisations or global governance,” singling out the UN.The changes were felt acutely on the ground in Egypt and Jordan. The US has long been the most significant international benefactor to both. Without even taking into account the indirect humanitarian aid from US-funded international agencies, Cairo and Amman are the third and fourth biggest recipients of US international financing, amounting to over $3 billion (nearly €2.7bn) a year.As former Egyptian diplomat and Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs Dr Ezzat Saad told Euronews from his office in Cairo, “we’re living in a turbulent and tense climate that the Trump administration has created”.However, Washington has made a crucial distinction in what aid it is gutting and what will be retained. Much ado about RafahAmidst the cuts and chaos, the US government announced in March that it would set up a brand-new USAID regional bureau in Cairo: an incongruous and widely overlooked decision. Even US officials on the ground admitted to Euronews that they did not know about the decision, let alone the reasons behind it.Closer inspection of what constitutes aid in Jordan and Egypt could explain at least part of the reasoning. While 75% of US assistance to Jordan is humanitarian, that number tumbles to just 20% in Egypt. The rest goes on military assistance, or providing weapons, of which Egypt is the second biggest recipient after neighbouring Israel. Washington has signalled that this form of support will not be affected by recent cuts.Some see the reason for retaining such aid as relating to a common border between the two and the Egypt-controlled Rafah crossing into the Gaza Strip.“Egypt’s primary issue now is making sure that Gazans stay in Gaza and they need the support of the US for this,” Ben Fishman explained to Euronews from Washington.Fishman is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute think-tank, having previously worked supporting the Obama administration on Middle East policy, including on aid packages.Since the start of Israel’s campaign against Hamas in Gaza, some, including Israeli ministers, have posited the idea of opening the Rafah border crossing into Sinai to empty out the tract of land of an increasingly desperate civilian population as it attempts to rid the Strip of the militant group.More recently, the US president himself echoed the idea.Egypt has suffered years of successive economic crises, exacerbated by a regional conflict that has led to a fall in tourism and a 60% decline in income from Egypt’s biggest single source of revenue, the Suez Canal. It seems the last thing Cairo wants is more people to look after, especially in North Sinai, a strategic territory in the Middle East that makes Egypt one of the few countries in the world stretching across two continents. Last year, it was reported that the Egyptian authorities were quietly constructing a kilometres-long and five-metre-high wall set back from the Rafah crossing.However, former Egyptian opposition MP and political analyst Amr El-Shobaki questioned Fishman’s analysis of the reasons behind the continuation of US military aid to Egypt during an interview with Euronews in Cairo. Referencing the decision to move the USAID bureau to the Egyptian capital, El-Shobaki said, “With the headquarters here in Egypt, maybe they think that it's still possible to convince Egypt to accept at least some of the Palestinians from Gaza.”Jumping between English, French and Arabic, the ex-politician quickly clarified: “This is what America is thinking. The Egyptian government has refused.”Yet continued US assistance has not extended to Jordan, which already houses more Palestinian registered refugees than the entire population of Gaza, accounting for over 20% of the country’s population.Jordanian Professor Ayman Al-Barasneh is deeply concerned about the loss of US funding for refugee populations. “This will put pressure on essential public services, such as healthcare and education and supporting refugees," he told Euronews from Jordan University. "All these sectors rely heavily on US aid.”Professor Al-Barasneh also warned that the cuts will have a dangerous ripple effect, perhaps even beyond his country's borders. “American continued support has become essential for Jordan to maintain its internal stability, accelerate development, and manage its precarious geopolitical situation amid the Middle East wars,” he explained.Who are you going to call? The US retreat in Jordan, and to a lesser extent in Egypt, is opening the door for new powers, including the EU, to replace the US aid dominance. In April, the EU approved a landmark €4.5 billion financial assistance package to Jordan and Egypt, with the vast majority going to the latter. It came just months after EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen and Jordan’s King Abdullah II signed a separate support deal worth €3 billion, amid handshakes and beaming smiles.Von der Leyen described Jordan as “a key partner and pillar of regional stability”.Professor Al-Barasneh hailed the deal as a “contribution to reducing the financial deficit by using $1.32 billion (€1.17bn) to compensate for the loss of US aid.”Meanwhile, Dr Saad pointed out that stability in Egypt and Jordan directly benefited the EU, a political union plagued by debates over illegal migration across the Mediterranean.“Any reduction in the role of Washington on problems in the Middle East places an additional burden on the Europeans,” he said. “We always tell the European ambassadors who visit us here that we are closer to you than you think and you must think about having an active political role in solving the problems of the region,” explained Dr Saad, who also served as Egypt's ambassador to Indonesia, Russia and Turkmenistan, among others.However, for El-Shobaky, it is the existence of these debates and the lack of unity in Europe which stymies its ability to take on the role that the US seems to be relinquishing.“The problem is still the division inside Europe. They don't have a common political system,” the now-director of the Arab-European unit at the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies explained.“Europe as an economic partner is amazing. It is, I think, the fairest economic partner with Egypt. But we cannot rely on Europe to solve things like the Palestinian issue”.'Alternatives that rise to the challenge'Away from the US and EU, China and Russia are becoming increasingly intertwined with Egypt and Jordan, especially the former.Western countries and Israel recently reacted with consternation as Egypt held joint naval exercises with China and Russia in the Mediterranean, codenamed operation "Bridge of Friendship 2025". Then, last Tuesday, it was reported that a Chinese Il-76MF, a Soviet-designed heavy transport aircraft, had landed in Egypt, raising speculation about fresh Chinese military equipment arriving in the country. It was the latest in a series of Chinese military flights destined for Egypt.El-Shobaky explained matter-of-factly that despite US assurances on military aid to Egypt, “we need to build alternatives that rise to the challenge, either with Europe, or perhaps Russia. If its war (in Ukraine) stops, then of course, its role will increase. And China is already progressing technically.”His concerns fit into a wider global conversation about the reliability – or lack thereof – of a country once seen as the single dominant world power.But don’t write off the US too quickly, El-Shobaky countered towards the end of the interview with Euronews. “I don't see that American domination will disappear in just a few years,” he said, adding that Egypt is not at heart “part of the axis of Iran, Russia (and) China.”“Sure, Egypt has good relations with Russia and China, but we try to make a balance, we have very good relations with Europe. Egypt is integrated into an international system, and who leads this international system? The US.”The Trump administration also recently rolled back some of its more extreme aid cuts. However, El-Shobaky contended that his country and those in the wider region will just have to deal with these constantly shifting sands.“They continue to do what they do,” he concludes, referring to the US, EU, Russia and China, closing the door and shaking his head ever so slightly.“We try to just manage and survive”.